Cloud Computing Hits a Tipping Point Bernard Golden. Post Views 1. 0,3. Cloud computing has hit a tipping point. What do I mean by that Cloud computing is now established as the default choice for application deployment. More important, the IT disciplines that accompany application design and operation are now cloud centric. This means application architects assume infrastructure transience, horizontal scaling, and topology partitioning microservices. It means operations groups recognize Dev. Ops is table stakes, now that infrastructure availability is measured in seconds or minutes, not weeks or months. And it means that IT groups are using services rather than implementing components, e. Redshift rather than Teradata. They want the function, not the support. In short, cloud has won the hearts and minds of IT users. The significance of this tipping point is profound. It will destroy the legacy data center focused vendors. The cloud giants will generate hundreds of billions of dollars of annual revenue. And we will see the penetration of IT into every product and service so much so that information technology will be invisible to us, as it will pervade every aspect of daily life so thoroughly that it will unremarkable. Ibm Rational Application Developer Install Google' title='Ibm Rational Application Developer Install Google' />The Rise of the Cloud Giants. Everyone is familiar with technology S curves innovation follows a pattern of slow adoption at introduction, very rapid growth after proof of value, and deceleration when a market is saturated. Design. IBM Notes is a clientserver crossplatform application runtime environment that provides an interface to the IBM Notes and Domino software. Here is an example of an S curve mapped onto Geoffrey Moores well known chasm model. Cloud computing has now entered the steep growth phase of its lifecycle. I recently analyzed the latest quarterly results of the big three providers AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, aka AAG. Listing of web test tools and management tools link checking, html validation, load testing, security testing, java testing, publishing control, site mapping. Because Im currently struggling to learn IBM Rational ClearCase, Id like to hear your professional opinion. Im particularly interested in advantagesdisadvantages. Xcode is an integrated development environment IDE for macOS containing a suite of software development tools developed by Apple for developing software for macOS. Google Home owners will probably be talking to their living rooms a lot more thanks to an update that lets the voice assistant make phone calls to the U. S. and Canada. The chart below summarizes my revenue estimate As to the AAG growth rate, I wrote The blended growth rate of the cloud providers, adjusted for revenue percentages of the individual providers, is on the order of something like 6. This indicates the big three revenues might achieve something around 2. Some in the industry believe the big providers are nearing a rapid deceleration. One pundit predicted a dramatic drop in AWSs growth in Q3. Not sure how he came to that conclusion, since he offered nothing more than an assertion as evidence for his opinion. Frankly, thats wishful thinking. There is huge current TAM Total Addressable Market for AAG to go after more on that in the next section. Normally I would say you could get IBM Java from purchasing an IBM product, for example Rational Application Developer for Windows, or WebSphere Application Server. Cloud computing is now established as the default choice for application deployment. More important, the IT disciplines that accompany application design and. On Monday, we learned that Microsoft was killing off the iconic Microsoft Paint program after 32 years and replacing it with Paint 3D in its upcoming Windows 10 update. IBMs official developer program offers tutorials and training, trials and downloads, and access to expert answers on IBM and open standards technologies. There is no reason to believe that customer adoption is, for some reason, going to slow down. In fact, its just the opposite. Google believes its cloud could run bigger numbers than its ad business. AWS believes that its business could be larger than the e commerce side of the house. I know from personal conversations with AWS executives that they believe it can be a multi hundred billion dollar business. Over the next few years, we can expect to see the big providers grow to huge revenues. More important, the big provider clouds will become the default computing substrate for information technology, with the vast majority of applications deployed into these environments. The Incumbents Erode. The second quarter of 2. While IBM and HPE both aver that they are in the midst of turnaround plans that will soon see their revenues turn up, one has to be skeptical. There is no evidence of this, and their presentations of their strategies are risible. Enterprise strong Dell is in a somewhat different position. Michael Dell bought both the eponymous Dell and EMC on the cheap and only has to manage for cash flow to pay off the loans that funded the purchase. A brilliant strategy for Michael Dell. Its not clear, however, how well a grow share in a shrinking market strategy plays out long term. Industry observers recognize the horrible state of the incumbents in a tipping point world. Rumble In The Jungle Reception Activities. The Response of the Industry. To me, the response of the industry is puzzling, and in this I include both vendors and end users. Instead of recognizing the obvious, and aggressively planning for a cloud first world, most seem to be beating a stubborn retreat, clinging on to the rapidly disappearing world of physical kit, and grudgingly acknowledging that some workloads will be deployed into cloud environments. The mantra of the day is hybrid IT, meaning a mix of on premises and cloud deployed applications. The attitude seems to be theres a trillion dollars worth of IT equipment sold every year so theres a bright outlook for the future of on premises applications. But people who push hybrid IT confuse todays reality with tomorrows expectation. As weve just seen, the big vendors are hemorrhaging revenues. So theyre not going to contribute to that trillion dollars. Others accept that the old hardware approach is dead, but believe the on premises concept will be saved by hyper converged infrastructure in other words, there will still be a trillion dollars spent each year, just on different stuff, and maybe from different vendors. The reality is that on premises is in terminal decline and nearing collapse. Their revenue drops will accelerate as users continue to climb the steep part of the cloud S curve and IT spend shifts to AAG. The only question remaining is what the endgame is for these companies. Looking at the user side of the equation, its a muddle. There are some companies all in on public cloud. There are some that emphatically state that they couldnt possibly use public cloud. The rest maintain that, just like the vendors, they are pursuing a hybrid cloud strategy. The only thing is, theyre not. They use public cloud but their on premises infrastructure is the same old legacy stuff. Private clouds are so rare they might as well be on the endangered species list. Cloudbursting is much talked about, but never seen. All of this end user hybrid talk makes for better feelings all around. It doesnt offend the legacy vendors who still need to be talked to about on premises kit. It makes legacy application focused employees less anxious about their job security. It probably serves as a talking point for the CIO when he or she is pointedly asked by the CEO about public cloud use and why things arent moving faster. But it doesnt solve the core problem directing IT toward the future and focusing effort on the only thing that matters applications. All of this hybrid talk masks the real issue how quickly the organization can shift toward delivering business value rather than managing plumbing. The Future of ITIn a sense, the future of IT has never been brighter. Driven by the ongoing shift from atoms to bits aka digitization, IT is moving from a role of cost center support organization to one of core productservice functionality provider. But to succeed in this world, IT needs to become cloud centric and drop the hybrid cloud subterfuge. IT leaders need to make the following changes Recognize the future for what it is. Cloud computing is the future. Any decision you make that does not take that as a given is a mistake. AAG will come to dominate the infrastructure world, and its crucial you recognize that and orient your strategy around it. The cloud tipping point is a nexus between the past and the future just like the PC, X8. They became the foundation upon which IT operated. Cloud is the next one, and it will be just as dominant as they were. If every part of every application design, deployment, and operation isnt centered around using cloud, youre doing it wrong.